Wednesday, November 28, 2012

11/28/12 Wed Watchlist

$SPY has been holding up since last week leading into the holiday. Not sure when it will turn but it has tested and failed res at 141.5 and is gapping down into gap fill premarket today. I expect more fading today but be prepared for the reverse.

Short Setups
Good news is that SureTrader is changing to a new clearing firm which would "more than double short availabilites." This is awesome as there could be borrows for more ideal set-ups. The change goes into affect next week Dec 3rd.

VVUS - thsi stock just keeps holding up perhaps in anticipation of PR/news. I will not short this aggressively, instead I will wait for technical breakdowns/panics. Key res zone 12.4/12.8 and key supp 10.25. EMA20-daily is also significant.

GMCR - earnings winner that is gapping up over 20% premarket, could get ove-extended quickly for a short scalp.

ACAD - one of most over-extended stocks on market. potential short on any spikes towards but under key res 6.25.

Long Setups

PWEID - pump bounce on watch. I scalped it yesterday for a net $150 and plan to do so if it can hold and bounce here above 0.35. Next potential bounce at supp 0.22.

SVEN - this is the new APS pick released yesterday. A potential buy on any major dips (or washout).

 GRPN - could test and pop thru EMA20-daily today.

JVA - former earnings winner down from highs and gapping on GMCR (big earnings winner) sympathy.

Monday, November 26, 2012

11/26/12 Mon Watchlist

$SPY has continued to squeeze shorts thru Black Friday. The market may or may not come down from these highs this week so be prepared for either price action.

Short Setup
VVUS - has been spiking with IBB and should come down when the market turns. Res near 12.4 and supp near 10.8 are key. I will be looking to short any tops.

Long Setup
FB - is gapping up nicely premarket. its a potential buy with upside to 25.9 where it's a potential short depending on market and vol.

KKD - potential buy if it can hold above key supp near 9.3. Always a potential short following big crack at key level. Key res at 9.7

JVA - perking up no real volume.

SYNC - still testing 4.77 for supp, on watch for vol.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

11/21/12 Wed Watchlist

$SPY is retesting key res 139.4, which it failed and panicked on the first attempt but rebounded quickly to retest toward eod. Judging by the vol and assuming there is no exceptional economic news, I see it failing again and today being a red day; it was able to break trendline and find some supp so it could fade sideways until it cracks and loses trending supp.

Short Set-ups
Notice that I have some earnings winners as potential shorts, for two reason: (1) these get over-extended quickly with alot of momo and hype buying; and (2) they are usually easy to borrow, which is a problem I run into with stocks that have poor fundamentals. Until I open an account with IB or the like, I'm probably stuck shorting strong stocks when they get grossly over-extended.
SideNote: Someone asked me in TimAlerts chat why I don't short weaker set-ups. Well like I said earnings losers are hard to borrow at SureTrader. Secondly, I short recent earnings winner rather than those announced weeks because recent winners get much over-extended obviously due to momo and excessive hype so they come down much nicer like ES did just days after its earnings rally.

VVUS - is fundamentally poor imo as it recently missed its earnings (11/6). I shorted it yesterday at 10.60 and covered 10.40 for 100buck scalp, shortly after it would panic 15cents more. Key levels are near 11.2, 10.7, 10.2, and 9.9. It has already proven it could break thru 10.2 so an aggressive short squeeze could take it to 11.2 to test but I don't see it happening with this fundmentally poor stock (only good news can cause such a rally). Potential short on any spikes under 10.2.

FB - is a big earnings winner that will continue to try to zap shorts until it runs outta fire power. Key levels are near 25.9, 23.3 and 22.3. It has already proven it could break 23.3 so I would not short as it could and probably will spike to 25.9 because it is fundamentally solid stock with alot of supp and hype. Ideally, i'd wait for it to test and fail near 25.9 to short it aggressively but only if it fails 25.9 which I expect judging by the fading vol.

KKD - this is yesterdays earnings winner that is spiking, zapping, and squeezing like an earnings winner should. Its not nearly as aggressive at squeezing shorts like FB but respect it. Key levels are near 9.7, 9.3 and plenty of supp near and below 8.2. It has already proven it could break 9.3 so I would wait for it to try spiking towards 9.7 for my ideal short entry.

Note: Over-extended earnings winners are as much a buy as they are potential shorts in my book so be prepared to buy into short squeezes and short the end of the squeeze.

Long Set-ups

JVA - spiked with vol yesterday as it bounced where it seems to be basing now; i sold my 6.68 position at 6.64 to cut loss and wait for the breakout. It could breakout any day now so be prepared and watch vol because that tells all. It has a spike/fade pattern so you much be prepared to enter or you'll miss and chase. Key levels are near 5.7, 6.3, 6.4 and heavy res at 6.9 with upside to 8s from there. It closed above 6.4 so watch for vol today as it will need it to hold above 6.4.

SYNC - is really trying to base here about 4.8 but it hasn't been able to hold above 5.17. Keep in mind that this was an NIA pump and dump that was pumped from 8 to 18 so imagine how many angry bagholders there are out there selling into any spike to cut there losses for taxes. But this is also trying to rebound with several catalysts including earnings and NIA repumping it. Its a battle worth watching at these levels as it tests at its all-time low. Just wait for the breakout on this one. If you don't know what a breakout is, get Tim Sykes' two PennyStocking DVDs and learn the breakout patterns.

HOV - this stock has been trending and breaking out for months on nearly all time-frames. I've been scalping it on and off. Today 5.50 is he breakout to watch as it could hit more 52week highs. Key levels 4.96, 5.50 and 5.95. I will be buying the breakout if it breakouts. Its a potential short if it fails at 5.50 (meaning if it fails to hold above 5.50).

Happy trading and happy Thanksgiving! Gobble gobble. Peace.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

11/20/12 Tuesday Watchlist

No watchlist yesterday because I was too busy remodeling my mother's store.

$SPY had a big green day yesterday which can be explained by the recovering housing market which had data to support. SPY will be retesting key res at 139.4 today. Not sure if it will breakout or fail the test. Just be prepared for both. I am still short-biased on this bearish price action.

Short Setups
I have removed CYTX, SQNM, SNSS and DGIT from the list because they are just too hard to borrow at SureTrader and there is just no point in me wasting my time with them if I can't play them. It really sucks when you have a small account. These are not ideal set-ups only because some have solid fundamentals and therefore down breakdown easily and tend to be choppier and the gains are less but my strategy still works.

VVUS - watching key sup 9.9 for a breakdown to key supp 8.8. don't anticipate the breakdown esp since this stock has dropped alot already. let it bounce and wait for the breakdown.

FB - this is an earnings winner that is breaking out on vol. but it gets over-extended quickly due to momo so I like to short scalp over-extension. It started to breakdown 23.3 but was stalled buy dip buyers at 23. Potential short with downside to 22.5.

NTE - also an over-extended earnings winner that is slowly fading but drops fast when it breaksdown at key supp. A potential short under 13.2 with downside to 11.8.

Long Setups
I try not to dip buy in a bear market so I will only be looking for breakouts to buy.

SYNC - seems to be basing here about key supp 4.77. I am now watching key res 5.17 for breakout vol.

JVA (Im am long 6.68) - No vol indicating a bottom but it closed strong up 5.7% with some vol. now is the time to keep it on alert and watch for news/PR. No news or PR then I will sell into any spike and rebuy later.

GALE - potential buy above 1.81

Friday, November 16, 2012

11/16/12 Friday Watchlist

$SPY is basing near key supp at 135 for a possible overall market spike today which could trigger short squeezes as heavily shorted stocks hold up. I am not sure which stocks will squeeze today but I will be looking to short any failed squeeze attempts on fading vol. My odds have not been that great buying dips and bottoms in this market so I will only buy breakouts. And I will be focusing mostly on shorting good set-ups like CYTX, SNSS and DGIT.

Short Set-ups
These set-ups are great put hard to borrow at ST.

CYTX - now down 50cents since it cracks key supp. it spiked yesterday before fading nicely but there were no borrows at ST. still a short on any spikes. Has plenty of downside with checkpoint at key supp 3.07

SNSS - now down 40cents since it cracked key supp 4.29. it spiked and started fading yesterday but no borrows at ST. downside to pivot at 3.12 with key supp at 3.52 as checkpoint.

DGIT - cracked 9.92 as I expected and faded 30cents for a true first red day. downside to 8 with checkpoints at key supp 9.10 and 8.45.

SQNM - i would only day-trade this one because you never know what will happen o/n after insider buying.  it will give the most when it takes out its lows and key supp at 3.49.

Long Set-ups
These stocks are all potential Friday short squeezes as they are way off there highs and particularly SYNC and JVA since they are earnings winners that could find support at any key levels.

SYNC - has vol and seems to be bottoming. i still have a small position at 5.14 and will average down once its actually bottoms. key levels at 4.77, 5.17 and 6.20

JVA - I am still long 6.68 (which was a bad trade) and will average down once it bottoms. still no vol to indicate a bottom yet but I am watching supp at 5.99 and key supp at 5.74 for vol.

ROSG - I am long 4.02 in anticipation of a gap-up and morning spike (perhaps even a Friday short squeeze). this stock repeats itself and i've nailed it many times when it patterned like this. Has 50cents of potential upside

Thursday, November 15, 2012

11/15/12 Thursday Watchlist

$SPY went sideways to retest pivot and is now finally tanking. Some support underneath so we may see a bounce or some sideways-ness before more tankage unless there is good economic news to give it more support. I am still short-biased in this market but will acknowledge any spikes.

Earnings Losers
These are good set-ups to short so keep looking for borrows. Remember these will fade unless there is news/catalyst to spike it with volume. So cover on news/big volume (unless its panic selling of course).

CYTX - now down 40cents since it cracked key supp 3.86. a short on any spikes.

SNSS - cracked key level 4.29 as it could not find support there and faded 7%. No key supp until 3.52 so its still a short on any spikes.

DGIT - has been holding up above 9.92 but it will crack today unless there is a catalyst/news. At best it will retest its high near 10.25.

SQNM - I put this back on the list because the run just ended but becareful as this has some support due to recent news and speculation from insider buying. I would only day-trade this one because you never know what news will come after insider buying. Its moving on high daily volume so it'll drop faster, which is ideal for day trades.

Earnings Winners
I've been too aggressive on the long-side this week when I should not be. In this market your odds are much better waiting to buy a breakout than anticipating it. I had to rewatch Pennystocking part deux to re-discipline myself. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A BREAKOUT

JVA (i'm long 6.68) - my buy at 6.68 and holding was terrible because there just wasn't enough volume to indicate a bottom. I was too eager to get in on the action and not missing it. Be patient be disciplined. I will average down and sell quick. Probable bottom is key supp at 5.74 with some minor supp at 5.99. just wait for volume and let it pattern before entering. Only buy the breakout.

SYNC (i'm long 5.09) - I also jumped the gun on this one too. I failed to acknowledge the 11/12 PR which could explain the 12% spike we saw yesterday. I will sell into a gap-up/at the open if no vol. Let it pattern about 4.77 and 5.17 and wait for breakout vol.

ROSG - is at a major pivot here at 4. Two things could happen: (1) it will tank or (2) it will hold up and shorts will get squeezed. I am anticipating the latter. Again, buy the breakout do not anticipate it.

GALE - Still a buy esp if the market spikes today. It is consolidating premarket to retest key supp 1.72 so look out for morning spike with upside to key res at 1.99.

VRML - closed above key res 1.31 so look out for breakout vol with upside to key res 1.67


MIMV - chart looks good. vol looks good. this is a good potential breakout set-up. alot of activity due to speculation about some MSFT deal. the price action factors all of this into it so now looks like its ready to run. Buy the breakout don't anticipate it.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

11/14/12 Wednesday Watchlist

$SPY looks like it may continue sideways  until it cracks. Still short-biased in this market but I will buy the bottoms of earnings winners and I will buy pumps.

Earnings Winners

JVA - I am still holding my 6.68 position even tho I coulda shoulda woulda sold into the gap-up to 6.95 yesterday when vol was absent but I didnt so I will hold and avg down as it patterns. Still watching between 6.27 and 6.41 key levels.

SYNC - Vol is picking up here just under 4.77 pivot. Its waking up but the question is is it bottoming or will it panic. No play until 4.77 breakout on volume.

GALE - I believe it has more upside so I'm watching 1.72 for vol.

ZAZA - this prolly has the nicest chart on the market with a catalyst. Key res at 2.19 and 2.83. Its too much off its bottom and middrange now. It's breaking out so I will wait for it to find supp at 2.19 for a nice rally toward 2.83.

Earnings Losers

CYTX - now faded 40cents off its high's and 20cents down from when I called it a short under key res 3.86. Still a short on any bounces.

SNSS - is over and trying to find supp at key 4.29 and still perking up just as I warned it could given the 40cents trendline channel it bounced off of near 4.1. Key res at 4.86 where I expect it to top.

DGIT - first red day yesterday but it did push to close over key level 9.92, so I wouldn't short until it cracks at 9.92 with some vol.


SANP - I am not touching this until it breakout 2.0 if it can.

GRZG - is patterning about 1.50, I am now watching 1.55 for new highs before entering.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

11/13/12 Tuesday Watchlist

I'm expecting $SPY to either tank or go sideways and fade, so I am def short-biased in this market, however earning winnings are big catalysts that can spike against the market so I will buy earning winners. I am also watching two pumps (SANP and GRZG).

Earnings Winners:

JVA (long)- i'm swinging this earning winner from 6.68, bought half my position on the morning creep up. it seems to be bottoming here I will add on a dip and hold for a probable spike when it finds support at 6.42. Heavy res zone near 6.9 so I am watching that level as a check point.

PERI (long)- this earnings winner is breaking out into new highs. i bought at the open yesterday at 8.90 and will hold for a possible spike today.

ROSG (long)- spiked yesterday as I had anticipated them hold it up at the pivot for earnings announcement.  It could spike to retest 4.80 and more if news is released.

SYNC (long)- seemed to be trying to base here at 4.77 pivot but needs more volume. Be patient as it could continue to fade due to NIA's bagholders.

GALE (long)- tanked 31% on a negative PropThink article but the sentiment doesnt last as stocks usually regain all there losses due to the article (see QCOR 11/2/12 for instance). So I was prepared for a nice GALE rebound until they announced earnings ahead of time (premarket instead of a/h) so I may gap a bit much. Still a potential buy if it doesn't gap too much.

VRML (long)- is now a 5-time earnings winner so this stock has solid fundamentals and is a great buy with a great spike pattern. a def buy if it can breakout 1.31 pivot, otherwise its a dip buy if it fails to break 1.31 here.

Earnings Losers
Since these are good set-ups the are hard to borrow at ST but no borrows no cry, just keep looking for them everyday. I removed SQNM from the list due to the analyst upgrade it received yesterday am.

SNSS - this is the earnings loser that squeezed last Friday. Its just perking up towards key res 4.29 but wwill need vol to break it, so remember vol is key Still a potential short under 4.29.

CYTX - faded nicely 30cents off its highs yesterday for a first red day. potential short on any spike/bounce.

GDIT - has the cleanest chart on the list. it hit a higher high yesterday with key res ahead at 10.49 and has key supp at 9.92 so don't be too quick to short.

PZZI - added from TimAlerts watchlist. It spiked as shorts covered due to some weak news. A potential short here as it tests near key res 3.22.

Most of these pumps out there now are crap with crap volume. I gave up trying to scalp them as they are too risky. These set-ups are from TimAlerts and they are great set-ups so just focus on those until the next APS pick.

SANP - Just wait for the 2.0 breakout. These pumps can washout anytime at any res level so I will wait for it to breakout into clear skies.

GRZG - a pump by “”, “” and “Wealth Generation Report”. See this report. If they hold it up here I am watching 1.50 for entry once it holds a pullback with sustained vol. No play if vol fades but volume is spiking nicely so far.

Monday, November 12, 2012

11/12/12 Monday Watchlist

Earnings Plays
$SPY has lots of minor supp on the daily chart so its could consolidate sideways this week. I think it may crash so I am remaining bearish in this market so most the plays are shorts but I am looking at some earnings winners as well. And since its earnings season most are earnings plays.

CYTX (short)- earnings miss that squeezed on Friday. This thing spiked with volume so it could still squeeze some more. it has some res zone at 3.9 but no key res until 4.4 so it could still run alil bit more. look for a top at these levels. no borrows no cry

SNSS (short)- also an earnings miss that squeezed on Friday. Key res at 4.25 and 4.75. wait for a top at these levels. no borrows no cry.

SQNM (short)- another earnings miss that squeezed on Friday. Some res at 3.75 but key res at 4.0. Its gapping up on an upgrade it just received based on survey that showed pos outlook for the company. I don't think this news is that great esp with an earnings miss so I will be watching volume to gauge how much rally is around this upgrade. No volume = great gap/spike and crap.

ES (short)- is an earnings winner but had a weak rally as it is at 3.1 pivot. this could top very nicely on fading volume. obviously easy to borrow.

PERI (long)- from TimAlerts watchlist. Its breaking out on earnings at 7.8 pivot. I am watching it pattern above key supp at 8 for a dip entry.

ROSG (long)- this stock has been the love of my life since it ran to 23 in may with a beautiful chart like BVSN and JVA. It is expecting earnings on 11/16 so I expect them to hold it up here at 4.0 pivot this week just like they did with BVSN when I bought it at 8.06 on 10/23.

JVA (long)- earnings winner that is washing out weak hands before it spikes. watching between 6.25, 6.0 and 5.75 for volume. Look at its pattern, it moves quick so be prepared for it.

SYNC (long)- NIA's previous pump. its a 2-time earnings winner that has been dropping very probably because of NIA bagholders but it must bottom at some point. I think now could be the time here at its all-time low. I am watching between 4.75 and 5.2 for volume.


APS Pick - I don't usually buy these out the gate. I usually wait for the first dip/washout but I will buy a trend breakout on volume. Hoping the set-up is good.

FLAP - is being promoted by StockBrainiac (compensated $25k and expects more) as part of a supposed $1mil production budget. It is set-up nicely for a breakout. I am waiting for the first dip/pullback to see if it can hold above 0.41/0.42 before entering.

GRZG - from TimAlerts watchlist. watching 1.75 for a breakout entry.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Lesson: How I nailed SNSS Friday squeeze and How I will short it as an earnings miss

SNSS Friday Squeeze, Nailed it!
Note: None of these supp/res lines and trendlines were drawn in hindsight.

I anticipated this Friday squeeze:

I nailed it:

And here's how:

How I plan to short SNSS as an Earnings miss following this Friday squeeze:
Let me first remind you that price action stops for no news, it can only be over-extended by volume spike as traders rally around the news. Price action is not predictable but pivots are (i.e. key supp/res levels and trendlines). A pattern that I've recognized from studying SNSS's (and other stock's) earnings history wrt to price action (breakout vs. breakdown) at pivots is that an earnings winner leads to technical breakouts at pivots and conversely earnings misses lead to technical breakdowns at pivots.

On 11/8/12 morning, SNSS announced an earnings miss (EPS surprise -184% ouch). It spiked to test 4.29 pivot. It is currently testing trendline (height = 0.44) supp and could try to spike ~40cents with vol (next pivot at 4.82). So I will be watching 4.29 for a top (neg divergence and fading vol).

Here's the pattern i'll be looking for at 4.29 pivot. Vol is key. Also watch biotech index $IBB.

Friday, November 9, 2012

11/09/12 Friday Watchlist

As I had anticipated, $SPY is tanking and this seems to be the beginning. Apparently Obama's re-election is bad for the market. Nonetheless, its a good time to be a bear so focus on shorting and buying pumps and earnings breakouts (some bottoms are worth buying becuase shorts have to cover eventually). Today I am watching: AMRS, FCEL, PERI, XIN, TAGG, ELAY

AMRS (earnings winner, long)
I went long eod yesterday at 2.93 in anticipation of an eod rally. Big volume spike eod but there was just too much resistance. Expecting a morning spike with vol today. I will sell if no vol.

FCEL (earnings winner, long)
I am now watching it pattern about key supp 0.91 for vol before entry into this probable bottom. I will only entry once it breaks the trend and holds above 0.91.

PERI (earnings winner, long)
Not much of a pattern but I am watching 9.02 for some volume leading into 9.35 b/o into new highs.

XIN (earnings annoucement) - key res 3.71 is a multi-year pivot. I will short it under 3.71 on earnings miss, and I will wait for 3.71 b/o on earnings win. I will share chart once a TimAlerts once I figure out if its a win or a miss.

TAGG (pump bounce, long) - I am long 0.111 and will sell at a top near key levels which is to be determined.

ELAY (pump bounce, long) - Message board chatter still steady as ELAY is slowly perking. I am watching 0.0022 for vol. No vol no play. This thing is too illiquid to enter now.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

11/08/12 Thursday Watchlist

I had some long set-ups but the market is at a pivot and since Obama is appearantly bad news for the stock market we may see a panicking market any day now unless there is good economic news . See $SPY below (notice the big volue spike yesterday at the pivot 139.4):
So I will remain short-biased in this market and focus on short plays and buying good pump bounces or b/os. I am still too broke to short most pump-n-dumps so I'll be looking at good microcap stock set-ups like: CLWR, SVU, and ELAY

CLWR (over-extended top, short) - just recieved an upgrade this morning but I don't think there will be a rally off that but volume is key. Short any spike under res 2.21. I am still short 2.19 will cover near 2.

SVU (over-extended top, short) - is an over-extended earnings winner thats due for some consolidation. short any spikes under key res zone 3.10/3.13.

ELAY (pump rebound) - watching volume and message board chatter before entry. keeping 0.0022 on watch. Very illiquid until breakout so I will only play 300 bucks.

Trading Tip: Look for tops at key levels and always cover on sustained volume spike.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

11/07/12 Wednesday Watchlist (Follow-up)

Watchlist: NVGN, CLWR, FCEL, HOV

NVGN (breakout, long)
This thing is breaking out and will squeeze shorts once it finds support at key level 4.07, which is the level to watch.

CLWR (squeeze top, short)
This thing was holding up for news and the news was pathetic so I will short it on any spike or on sign of panic. Watch volume.

FCEL (news dip buy, long)
I am long 0.994 on this probable bottom here at 1. I got in early on pos divergence I will double up once it finds support at 1.0 today. I will sell half at 1.11 and rest at 1.25.

HOV (breakout top, short)
5.25 is the crack you want to wait for for confirmation. I may short early on neg divergence.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

11/06/12 Tuesday Watchlist

Watchlist: ELAY, AMBS, FCEL, NTE and HGSH

ELAY (bottoms bounce play)

Watching res 0.0022 for entry and key res 0.0035 as check point. Price target is near key res at 0.005

AMBS (bottoms bounce play)

Watching 0.05 for entry with trendline res and key res at 0.065 as checkpoint. Holding for up to 0.10 if trendline breaks out.

FCEL (new contract, long)
Waiting for trendline breakout at about 1.05 for entry. eod vol spike is a good sign that it is finding support at key supp 1.0. If it dips, below 1.0 I will wait for it to repattern for a 1.0 revival.

NTE (big earnings breakout, short-scalp, long-biased)

This is a big earnings winner that you do not want to short early. Wait for it to get over-extended as it already is. Then wait for volume to fade as it approaches key res zone where I will look for a top to short for  a buck or two downside. If it b/o thru key res zone then I will cover and buy the b/o.

HGSH (manipulated Chinese stock, short)

Looking for a top at key res 2.50. There wasn't much panic selling when it took out 2.50 so it may still have support there which means it is dangerous to be short above 2.50. It should fail 2.60/2.50 res test so look for a top there.

Others On Alert:
AONE - looking for any news related to financing/debt for a nice rebound.
GTSO - waiting for more message board chatter/volume.