Saturday, November 10, 2012

Lesson: How I nailed SNSS Friday squeeze and How I will short it as an earnings miss

SNSS Friday Squeeze, Nailed it!
Note: None of these supp/res lines and trendlines were drawn in hindsight.

I anticipated this Friday squeeze:

I nailed it:

And here's how:

How I plan to short SNSS as an Earnings miss following this Friday squeeze:
Let me first remind you that price action stops for no news, it can only be over-extended by volume spike as traders rally around the news. Price action is not predictable but pivots are (i.e. key supp/res levels and trendlines). A pattern that I've recognized from studying SNSS's (and other stock's) earnings history wrt to price action (breakout vs. breakdown) at pivots is that an earnings winner leads to technical breakouts at pivots and conversely earnings misses lead to technical breakdowns at pivots.

On 11/8/12 morning, SNSS announced an earnings miss (EPS surprise -184% ouch). It spiked to test 4.29 pivot. It is currently testing trendline (height = 0.44) supp and could try to spike ~40cents with vol (next pivot at 4.82). So I will be watching 4.29 for a top (neg divergence and fading vol).

Here's the pattern i'll be looking for at 4.29 pivot. Vol is key. Also watch biotech index $IBB.

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